Amerigon (ARGN) and Thermoelectric Devices, Your Time has Come

7 10 2007

I’m always on the lookout for a way to gain a trading edge using my scientific training or experience. The hope is that I’ll be able to see the true potential of a given high-tech product before Wall Street because I already have an intimate knowledge of that product in the lab.

I have always been fascinated with thermoelectric devices. I used these cool little technological wonders in many of the laser systems I worked on in graduate school. A fairly standard way to generate laser light in the mid-infrared region of the spectrum is to pass another shorter wavelength (high energy) laser through a specially designed crystal (wiki page) that “breaks” the incoming photon into two longer wavelength (low energy) photons. Using the proper crystal, operating at the proper temperature, one can cover a wide range of the infrared spectrum.

Thermoelectric devices are ideal for controlling the temperature of the laser crystal. They are very reliable and can both heat and cool, depending on which way the current flows through the device.

When I first learned about these guys I was amazed by how well they worked. I instantly came up with many of my own ideas of how these devices could be applied to everyday problems. One of my ideas was to place these things in car seats. Everyone knows about car seat heaters, but I grew up in Southern California and all I wanted was a seat that cooled my backside on hot summer days. A properly designed thermoelectric car seat could do both. As it turns out, someone else has already thought of this and are now well on their way to changing the future of car seats.

The company is named Amerigon (ARGN). They are currently selling their seats to car companies and are doing pretty well. The reality is, however, that car seats are just the tip of the iceberg. If the people at Amerigon have any imagination whatsoever, I’m sure we will see many more interesting applications for their products. One particularly promising application will rely on another interesting feature of thermoelectric devices. In the conventional application, a current is passed through the element and one side of it is heated while the other is cooled. Interestingly, if one places the element between an exterior heat gradient (one side hot, the other side cool) the device will produce a current, thus becoming a possible electrical power source. Just think of the possibilities, especially with energy prices continuing to rise.

As for a chart, it looks pretty good. I’m going to keep a close eye on it and will not let it get away from me if it breaks to the upside. ARGN is on the IBD 100, so beware. While you can find thermoelectric devices being used in such mundane applications as wine and beer coolers, I think Amerigon is thinking on the scale that will get these cool little solid-state devices into everyday life. Maybe I’ll send them a resume.





NYSE Euronext (NYX) TD Sequential Price Projection

7 10 2007

Comparing the chart of NYX to the previous post of RTI, it looks like there are many similarities. First of all, there is the perfected TD Sequential buy signal and quick move up. Like RTI, NYX has run into resistance at the TDST level. Should one sell or hold on?

Looking to the Combo A/D line, NYX has broken two shorter time scale downtrends and is approaching the long term downtrend line (red). I would stay long here and see how the A/D line reacts. If it bounces off the line I would take some profits, but also leave some on the table just in case NYX makes another move up.

This is the beauty of catching the bottom. It gives you a big cushion and keeps you from being shaken out of a stock just before the big move.





Longer Term TD Sequential Price Projections

7 10 2007

Ever since I coded up the TD Sequential and TD Combo buy points I have struggled with setting price projections. DeMark likes to use the TD Trend Factor, but I have found that with my limited bankroll using such small price projections are not practical. I also don’t have the time to monitor market closely enough. What I would really like is to buy at the bottom of a price reversal and have an indicator that would tell me if the move to the upside will continue or if the price will resume the larger downtrend.

Let me present a recent long position as an example. The short term chart show the TD Sequential countdown and the buy point (red bar). As the price moved up, one can see that it ran into resistance at the TDST line at 83.08 . Does one sell here or does one wait until the price builds strength to bust through overhead resistance?

What the next chart shows is that it might be possible to see a trend break in the TD Combo Advance/Decline line, indicating that a move higher is possible. As you can see, the A/D line has already broken the shorter term downtrends, indicating that one should hold the long position. If it breaks the final line, look for a larger up-move.





Tar Heel Football

6 10 2007

Not much to cheer about this year, which is why I’m posting this. Heels are dominating Miami in the first quarter. I haven’t seen their defense play this well since Julius Peppers and Ryan Sims lined up on the D-line.

Go Heels!





TD Combo Based Advance-Decline Indicator

6 10 2007


I have put together a advance-decline using the rules of the TD Combo countdown. The basic rules are a follows: When a TD Combo buy countdown day is recorded, a negative number one is assigned. When a TD Combo sell is recorded, a positive number one is recorded. The two results are added together and then summed to give the new indicator. This relatively simple indicator reduces the noise in the typical price chart. It also seems more susceptible to trendline drawing. The charts below are just a couple examples of using the indicator for confirm price breakouts.





TD Combo Oscillator Back-testing

4 10 2007

So I’ve done a little back testing on the three major indexes using my newly constructed TD Combo oscillator. The settings are pretty simple.

Buy = 21 day moving average of the oscillator crosses up through 0.40
Sell = 21 day moving average of the oscillator crossed down through 0.10

With this simple setting I get a nice return. What I especially like is the fact that the conditions keep you out of bear markets and keep you in the bull runs. (Green shaded areas are when the trade is on) More detailed backtesting results are given in each figure.





A new TD Combo based oscillator

3 10 2007
I had an idea this afternoon about a new oscillator and just finished putting it together. It is based on Tom DeMark’s TD Combo countdown rules. I plan on doing some backtesting in the near future but for now I’ll show it using a 40 day period. It seems to act like the RSI indicator, where it stays above 50 in bull markets and often sinks below it, without getting back to the highs, in bear markets. I have plenty of work to do on this.





Kohl’s Corp (KSS): The technicals agree with Fast Money

2 10 2007

I was looking some charts tonight and noticed that Kohl’s (KSS) finished up both a TD Sequential and a TD Combo countdown. Since I had such a nice pop with KSWS after my post the other day, I thought that I’d not be so timid about pulling the trigger for another retailer. Plus, there is a nice inverted head and shoulders on the chart.

In a bit of a coincidence, I had the tv on in the background and heard the Fast Money people talking about their bullish outlook on Kohl’s. I might pick up some KSS for a short trade tomorrow. I’m not showing the charts but THQI and TDW look pretty good right here too.





No Black Swans for these guys

2 10 2007

In the previous post I argue that the 87 crash did not sneak up on the top Wall Street traders. On the contrary, they expected it and made a killing on it. Here are some quotes from Market Wizards.

Paul Tudor Jones interview with Jack D. Schwager

The week of the crash was one of the most exciting periods of my life. We had been expecting a major stock market collapse since mid-1986 and had contingency plans drawn up because of the possibility we foresaw for a financial meldown. When we cam in on Monday, October 19 (1987), we know that the market was going to crash that day.

Ed Seykota interview with Jack D. Schwager

I made money on the day of the October 1987 crash. I also made money for the month as a whole, and for the year, as well. I lost on the day after the crash, however, since I was short the interest rate markets. Most trend traders were likely either out or short stocks and stock indexes during the crash.

James B. Rogers, Jr. interview with Jack D. Schwager

I remember why I became even more bearish on the weekend before October 19. The week before, Alan Greenspan announced that the balance of trade was getting much better and things were under control. Two days later, the balance of trade figures came out, and they were the worst in history of the world. Right away I said, “This guy is either a fool or a liar. He doesn’t have any idea what is going on.” Then on the weekend before October 19, you Treasury Sectretary Baker telling the world we were going to stick it to the Germans by letting the dollar go, because the Germans weren’t loosening monetary and fiscal policy as Baker had demanded. It looked like the trade wars of the 1930s all over again.
I was in a panic-and I was alrady short! I called Singapore that Sunday night to add to my shorts. So all those guys who came in on Monday to sell had very, very good reasons to sell, andthere were no buyers araound.