TDST Lines in Ninja Trader
I have begun learning Ninja Trader. It is very powerful and very complicated and I have a renewed respect for Kuf and how well he has simplified a standard .net language into something that is accessible to beginners. I am not leaving Stockfinder, I am just broadening my horizons.
The above figure is my first result, which is the TDST lines on the QQQQ.
I grew up in Orange County, CA, so Santa Ana wind driven fires are just a normal part of year for me, just like the fall colors of New England, the cherry blossoms in the Mid-Atlantic, or San Francisco’s summer fog. But after watching some of the footage of the current fires and hearing some of the horrific number of houses being lost it seems that this year might be different. On NPR they just played a heart-breaking recording of a fire chief coming to a local shelter in Sylmar to tell the inhabitants of his failure to stop all 600 of their homes from burning to the ground. I cannot remember ever hearing about such terrible losses.
In the early 90’s, I lived in a two-bedroom flat in San Francisco that was totally gutted by a fire that almost took out the entire block (the fire was accidentally started by my then girlfriend). I lost everything except for the clothes on my back and my car. It sucked but I survived and I have felt connected to fire victims ever since.
While I don’t want to make light of this situation, I couldn’t help but be reminded of the August 2008 Bill Gross investment outlook letter. In it he wrote:
Make no mistake, the current conundrum that must be solved is: how to make the price of 120 million U.S. barns stop going down in price and then to make them go up again. That, however, is easier said than done. One of the wisest men I know has this serious but admittedly impractical solution: have the government buy one million new/unoccupied homes, blow them up, and then start all over again. Absent that, he’s not quite sure what to do, nor am I, with the exception of the next paragraph’s proposal.
Well it looks like some of the houses in the most distressed housing markets are not being blown-up, but are being burnt down. I’m not suggesting that this tragedy is intentional or a good thing, but as someone who has actually lived through having every single possession destroyed in a fire, I’m just used to looking on the bright side. Good luck So Cal!
Paul Kedrosky has written about sub-prime homes being more vulnerable to fires because of where they were built. I also noticed that the first comment in his latest post about this subject brings up the idea of homeowners burning their own homes to get out of their predicament. Hey, I’ve seen Goodfellas, and it seems to work for the mob.
The Times has a great Google maps update. You can see that the fires in OC started near an uninhabited area (Green River Golf Club) and were likely the result of something other than sub-prime arson.
I’m not sure what to think about Harry S. Dent Jr.. I have dismissed many of his predictions because of his propensity for making outrageous claims. But now that I think about it, while his numbers might have been wrong (no Dow 40,000), his overall thesis may still turn out to be correct. Go read an interview about his most recent book.
He is looking for lower lows but only after an intermediate bottom is made right here. He predicts an end to the pain sometime after 2012.
I might pick this one up and give ol’ Harry a second chance.
I saw this over at Andrew Sullivan’s blog and boy was it hard to watch. It brought back so many bad memories of watching the Art Laffers and Larry Kudlows of the world mix politics with the markets. There were several times when my wife had to remind me that no matter how much I screamed at the TV, those perma-bull fools would never hear me.
I wish someone would put together some more of these videos, only with different market players. I can remember seeing Barry Ritholtz (who made an excellent buy call today) going on several of these shows and getting laughed at for warning the country of the coming calamity. Sometimes it would get so bad that they would question the patriotism of any guest who would dare to be bearish.
The writing was on the wall for years and anyone could have been as right as Ritholtz and Schiff if they only took an objective look at reality. Don’t let any “market guru” tell you that they couldn’t see this coming. If you do hear it, don’t ever trust a single word that person says again!
Jim Rogers is one man that was right on the money!!! Keep listening to him.
There was no doubt that I was worried last night. As I went to sleep I was expecting the lows to be broken and starting wondering about what a S&P 500 at 400 would look like. To my surprise, the futures were not that ugly this morning and we flatlined for most of the morning. As the day wore on, we started to get some serious selling and so I starting looking at the two relative strength stocks that I’ve been following after their breakouts. I wasn’t surprised by price but I was pleasantly surprised by their light volume. Both AFAM and LHCG were retesting their breakouts on much lighter volume, LHCG especially. So when the market moved back up to nearly unchanged, I pulled the trigger on both of these possible new leaders.
LHCG
I really like the action in LHCG. I dig the declining volume and the flag pattern.
AFAM
AFAM’s volume took off in the last 15 minutes of trading. The volume was totally dead at the lows of the day.
So the market gets its successful test. The real plus here is that it did it on bad news and no major government intervention. How far we have to go really depends on how many bottom callers we have out there. The more we have, the less likely this rally will last.
This market is nuts.
Here is a 15 min chart of the qqqq. Check out how well my Trailer is working on intraday charts!
Trailer: 15 Minute QQQQ
I bought AFAM and LHCG today.
Not that any technical analysis has worked in this market, but the XLF just finished a TD Sequential buy countdown.
XLF TD Sequenatial
The market it on the cusp of its third test of the lows and the unthinkable is about to happen. Be patient and don’t lose hope. It is ok to be in cash but don’t stop following the market.
Keep your eye on sentiment. It might be able to tell us when that last hopeful bull finally throws in the towel. I like to read Mark Hulbert’s column over at MarketWatch.com.
I’ve been on the West Coast this last week and have not been posting much. Not much to report as we are still in this range and headed back down to the lows.
Here is the Market Monitor, which is rising due to a consolidation in price.
Market Monitor
Keep watching those breakouts. So far so good with LHCG as it comes back to the breakout on lighter volume. Considering the pain today, its relative strength is impressive.
Check out this move on the 15 minute UWM chart. My Trailer indicator nailed this one using a 3.5 multiplier of the ATR.
UWM: Trailer Trade
It has been a long time since I’ve seen a chart like this. I will be watching the retest very closely.
double bottom breakout AVAV
My blog is worth $10,726.26.
How much is your blog worth?
Recent Comments