Nobody said it would be easy

15 10 2008

This market is brutal, but how could we expect anything else. I’ll post the 87 crash later, but what you will see is that the market got back to the lows of Black Monday only a fews trading days later.

Stay small and take profits quickly.

UPDATE:

As promised, here is the 87 crash.  Notice how we went back got back down near the lows of the crash bar.  Notice also the contraction in volume.  The S&P 500 stayed in the range and based for months before it moved up, which resulted in a huge bull market. 

Today, we came back and got into the bullish reversal day.  Notice the contraction in volume.  Like 87, the most bullish thing would be a base pattern for next few months.  We do not want a huge run back up to the highs. 





What a wild ride

10 10 2008

The chart says it all.   It is either up from here off of today’s bullish reversal or its time to say your prayers. 

By the way, I’ll be updating the Fibonacci levels soon.  My previous post is pretty worthless now.





This was no crash!

29 09 2008

The more I follow the markets the more I’m convinced that the market is going to find its own low whether we like it or not.  Intervention just delays the inevitable. 

When Paulson came out with his deal we were on our way to a nice market capitulation low, probably around 925.   After the deal announcement and many points higher the bailout has run into some problems.  So today the markets sold off and everyone is calling it a crash.  Why don’t you compare today’s close with the low of the day that Paulson announced his plan?  We are only 27 S&P points below that level!  Not exactly a crash.  It looks to me like the market is just getting back to its original plan after a little Washington meddling.   

If there was never any intervention in the first place, we probably would be climbing back up already. 





Blood in the streets?

19 09 2008

Steven Goldberg writing for Kiplinger.com says it is time to buy — not sell, quoting that old classic about blood in the streets.  I’ve been waiting to see this headline because I’m always fascinated by the contradiction of such a call to buy.  If blood was truely running in the streets of Wall Street, would such a story really be on the front page of Google news?   

I’m not trying to say that things are hunky-dorey, but I am saying that there is a high likelihood that things will get much worse.  If that happens, I can guarantee you that you won’t be seeing articles about it being time to buy, which, of course, will actually be the time to buy. 

The market is a devious bitch.