Patience is the key

13 09 2008

I don’t like buying breakouts.  The chart of CRMT shows why that is.  Look at the breakout back in July.  If you bought it you would have been back to that same price level where you started in just a couple of months.  If you were patient, maybe even putting in a buy order at the close of the breakout, look at how nice a run you would have had. 

I always like to think in terms of weak and strong hands.  During the breakout, CRMT was being held by a combination of weak and strong hands.  While the stock pulled back in price it was slowly shaking out the weak hands until the price got all the way back to the breakout level where a final spike down got rid of the last of them.  Now the stock was ready to move up because it was being held by people with high risk tolerance and higher conviction. 

You have to be patient and wait for the correct buy points.  I wouldn’t buy CRMT now, for example, I would wait until it pulled back to the most recent breakout level.  It might take days or it might take months, but being patient usually pays off.





More breakouts, but not many

6 08 2008

Here are some breakouts that I found today.  Nothing spectacular, but Mindray Med looks pretty good.  I threw in that crazy reversal for II-VI just for fun. 

 





Ken Shreve Interview

5 08 2008

Ken Shreve on TFNN

One of my favorite things about Mondays is the interview Tom O’Brien has with Ken Shreve from Investors.com.  This week was particularly informative as Ken talked about follow-through days, new and old market leaders, and general markets trends.

I love how Ken emphasizes how not every follow-through day results in a new rally.  Ken points out that new leadership must appear and the simple fact is that there are very few IBD style stocks out there that are worth buying right now puts this particular follow-through day into question.  Don’t give up however.  New buys will start showing up sooner or later. 

Be sure to check out my webinar with Craig Shipman of Blocks.  One of the things I will cover is how to use Blocks to scan for stocks breaking out of sound bases.   





IBD Inspired Volatility Breakout System

30 07 2008

Yesterday was an IBD follow-through day, indicating that it is now time to start turning our attention from counter-trend bounces to breakouts.  I like to use the methods I’ve learned from Bill O’Neil and have been able to put together a Blocks layout that helps cut down the number of charts I need to look for. 

The method is fairly simple.  First, I created a way of defining a large price move on high volume, which should be present in any stock making a powerful breakout move.  To do this I just created a channel that uses a measure of the prices volatility.  Using this custom channel, I can just scan for stocks breakout of it on high volume.  I also want to scan for stocks that are near their recent highs.  I do this by creating a 60 Donchian channel and scan for stocks that are near this high.  Finally, I use the TD Average criterion to define an uptrend, which helps find strong stocks that are rising up the right side of a base.  I also use the Backscanner to help highligh buys and sells so I don’t chase stocks that have already made big runs. 

Here are some graphic examples.

The method works best with IBD type momentum stocks, but I was surprised how well it worked with the Nasdaq 100.  Here are the backtest results. 





MPWR, new leader or laggard catching up?

5 06 2008

While I acknowledge the difficult nature of this market, I’m still on the lookout for nice charts.  Here is a beautiful breakout from a long and deep correction.  Checkout the weekly chart (lower).  There has been a base reset and it looks like all the weak hands have been flushed out of this one.  

I would wait for a pullback before pulling the trigger.     





Anatomy of a Trade

25 05 2008

With the market flailing, I thought it would be nice to review some of the trades that I made since the last IBD-style “follow through” day.  I’ll start with CHRW, which first flashed on my daily screens when it broke out on March 24th.  I was quite bullish at the time and was ready to pounce on stocks with good relative strength.  I didn’t chase CHRW, but waited for a pullback after the break.  While CHRW climbed, I noticed that it’s industry group was performing very well, which gave me more confidence with this trade.   

As the market continued to climb on lighter and lighter volume I began to worry that we might not be out of the woods yet.  I was becoming more cautious and decided to take profits after a 20% gain (a standard CANSLIM selling rule).  I then turned to TD Sequential for more insights into the support levels of CHRW. 

While I often like to short stocks that have broken below their TD Sequential buy stop-loss points, the same rules apply to the reverse situation.  When TD Sequential Sell stop-loss points are violated, it often means that the equity has more upside.  As with shorting, the best entry is usually when the stock has retested the stop-loss point.  Turning our attention back to CHRW, you can see that it closed above its sell stop-loss point, indicating a very strong chart.  My strategy is now to see how CHRW acts when, and if, it comes back down to the stop-loss point.  If it does so on light volume, it might be worth re-establishing a full long position around 58, using a close below 55.87 as a stop-loss.   

 





50 Moving Average Test

17 05 2008

Here are some charts that have pulled back to their 50 day moving averages on lighter volume.  I like the look of WSCI the best.

LNN 50 dma test

NGS 50 dma test

WSCI 50 dma test





Discover the “i” in CANSLIM

9 05 2008

The “I” in CANSLIM refers to “Institutional Support”.  The ideas is that a stock that is being accumulated by the big funds will move higher and find support on larger dips.  I find that out of all of the CANSLIM rules, I ignore this one the most.  It is not because I want too, it is mainly because the information is a pain in ass to find.  

Well it looks like I don’t have that excuse anyone as I recently stumbled upon a really cool website.  It is called MMAIS.com and it pulls together all of the buying and selling of large funds.  Go check it out.  It may not be the atheistically pleasing site, but it sure has a ton of good stuff.