Can you say “Countertrend Bounce”?

21 08 2008

I guess that since oil made a large move today we are going to have to endure listening to the fundamentalists run around telling us that oil is moving up because there is some conflict between Russia and Georgia.  Never mind the fact that Russia invaded Georgia on the 8th of August and today was the first solid move up.  Never mind that oil has gone down from 140 to 112 almost non-stop.  I’m always shocked when I hear people talk as if there was no such thing as a countertrend bounce.

Not only was oil a perfect example of the benefits of paying attention to price, but as I posted last week, it was also a great example of TD Combo in action.  Here is another chart, this time the hourly, that could have given you an even more precise entry point. 

USO Hourly Chart

USO Hourly Chart





Trailer Indicator

17 08 2008
ATR Trailing Stop

ATR Trailing Stop

I was asked in my webinar about what charts my trailer indicator works best for.  I should have shown this chart for oil, which has been a trend follower’s dream.

 

UPDATE:  I have made an improvement to the trailer indicator.  It now will not retrace even if a new trend has started.

 

Updated Trailer ATR Stop

Updated Trailer ATR Stop





Oil’s Bounce

12 08 2008

Remember, nothing goes up forever and nothing goes down forever.  If your looking to play a counter-trend bounce on oil, the USO completed a TD Combo buy countdown today.  You might want to give the stop loss a little more room than what I have on the chart, maybe 5% below today’s close.  Good luck. 





More worrying about energy

20 07 2008

I’m in Keystone, CO for a nanotech conference this week and my head is killing me.  I’m staying at the River Run Village which is over 9000 feet high.  My body is definitely not used to the altitude yet. 

On the flight out here I was listening to some old “Talk of the Nation” podcasts (I especially like Science Friday shows) and they had someone from the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University on the show to talk about offshore and ANWR drilling.  I often wonder why there is such a push to get ANWR opened up and I finally learned why from this interview.  It seems that the Alaska pipeline will be transporting less and less oil as the reserve it was originally built to transport starts to dwindle.  If new oil can be tapped, it will have the previously constructed pipeline available for no added cost, which means big money.  Go listen to the interview.

 I’m not against oil exploration but I can’t stand the fact that the politicians fight over this issue while the really important decisions continue to be ignored.  More drilling alone isn’t going to save our asses.