It sucks being right

14 11 2008

I saw this over at Andrew Sullivan’s blog and boy was it hard to watch.  It brought back so many bad memories of watching the Art Laffers and Larry Kudlows of the world mix politics with the markets.  There were several times when my wife had to remind me that no matter how much I screamed at the TV, those perma-bull fools would never hear me.   

I wish someone would put together some more of these videos, only with different market players.  I can remember seeing Barry Ritholtz (who made an excellent buy call today) going on several of these shows and getting laughed at for warning the country of the coming calamity.  Sometimes it would get so bad that they would question the patriotism of any guest who would dare to be bearish.

The writing was on the wall for years and anyone could have been as right as Ritholtz and Schiff if they only took an objective look at reality. Don’t let any “market guru” tell you that they couldn’t see this coming. If you do hear it, don’t ever trust a single word that person says again!

Jim Rogers is one man that was right on the money!!!  Keep listening to him.





Must Read Blog Post

8 07 2008

Since I do not have the time to offer my own meaningful posts, I’ll point you to some blogs that do.  The recent post from Barry Ritholtz about confusing cause and effect is a must read.  Posts like this are the reason why “The Big Picture” is my favorite financial blog.  Pay particular attention to the prescient quote from T. Boone Pickens regarding G.W. Bush and oil prices.  Its funny how the best ideas look so obvious when we look back at them.





Bear Market Rally?

7 06 2008

Did you see the bear market rally talk over at The Big Picture.  Barry Ritholtz discusses the recent Barron’s article that raises the question about whether we are experiencing a bear market rally.  Mr. Ritholtz draws a few trendlines and wonders if there has been a false breakout. 

When I’m trying to determine if an index or stock has truly left the bear behind I turn to weird-wacky world of Fibonacci numbers.  I’ve talked about this subject several times on this site and I encourage you to look at how I use confluence for both buys and sells.

 Confluence worked like a charm for the 2000-2002 bear market on the S&P 500.   

Confluence works for the long side too

 Where are we now?  The Dow Industrials have already failed to breakthrough confluence and it looks to be headed back down to the lows. 

The Nasdaq has less technical damage but it still has failed to sustain a breakthrough of the confluence barrier.  It should be interesting watching how fast the money comes out of the Nasdaq once fear hits the markets.

 The S&P 500 is a mix between the Dow and Nasdaq.  Not as weak as the Dow, but not as strong as the Nasdaq.