short « The Novice Bear

We’re short of short support

22 09 2008

Thanks to our brilliant leaders, we now have no short sellers to help support the market as we come back into the lows. This is going to get ugly.

Next stop on the S&P 500 = 1073

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Tags : S&P 500, short
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Laggards Flash Sell Signals

3 09 2008

Here are some of the most recent TD Combo sell signals. I have highlighted the sectors. Notice how many laggards are in the group, which means this market is ready to head for the lows again.

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Tags : Market Tops, short, TD Combo
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X is setting up for a sweet short. I find it hard to believe that the steel sector is going to lead the market on the next bull run. I also know that you should always sell the cyclicals when they look the cheapest (earnings are highest at the peak). With that in mind, check out the Sequential Sell and Combo Sell charts. I would look to get short in the area of $180 if the volume dies off a bit.

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Tags : TD Sequential, TD Combo, short, us steel
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CTAS Volume Expands

20 06 2008

The other day I posted about my CTAS short position and how I use the basic ABC pattern to provide a price projection. There was one thing about the chart that worried me, however. The problem was that the volume was pretty weak as the price came into the B point. As you can see from today’s chart, the volume in CTAS has expanded by a huge amount, which suggest that institutions are starting to unload it. I can now expect the price to go down to the $23 point projection.

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Tags : short
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Short Price Projections (CTAS)

18 06 2008

Entering a trade is only half the battle. You always need an exit strategy.

The preplanned exit is especially important when you short a stock because the short covering rallies can be fast and furious. Here is my plan for CTAS, which I shorted last month. I like to use the ABC pattern as a way to determine a price target. Basically, I take the point difference between the A and B point and then subtract that number from the C point, giving me a target. I learned this method from Tom O’Brien and I’m amazed how well it works.

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Tags : CTAS, short, TFNN, Tom O'Brien
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Short Candidates

21 05 2008

Now that we are in a “confirmed correction” according to IBD, it might be wise to look for some short candidates. I like to make trades with well defined risk.

Here are a few charts that look good to me.