S&P 500 Retracement Target

8 10 2008

I have to say that when I posted a price projection of 925 on the S&P 500 back in mid-September I’m not quite sure I believed it myself.  We are not there yet but we are getting pretty darn close.  I also talked about starting to see V-shaped bottoms, just like we had back in the last bear market.  If there are some scared people out there right now, just imagine what we will see if we make the final push down to the 1:1.618 Fibonacci expansion, thus completing the left side of a V-bottom.   

I’m still holding my initial (small) SSO position and I think it is time to explore some possible retracement levels.  I’m hoping I have the balls to buy another panic selloff down at 925.  Either way, I’m looking to ride any bounce up to confluence levels at around 1150 to 1200. 


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SPY Combo Buy

3 10 2008

Yesterday marked a TD Combo buy for the SPY.  I didn’t get it for the S&P 500 index but that was due to a few pennies difference.  

In case you didn’t know it, that means buy here.


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We’re short of short support

22 09 2008

Thanks to our brilliant leaders, we now have no short sellers to help support the market as we come back into the lows.  This is going to get ugly.

Next stop on the S&P 500 = 1073


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Market Projections

17 09 2008

There was a ton of market talk at the office today, with people looking at charts and talking about support and resistance.  I had to laugh.  During one of the conversations someone asked me about when I would buy and here is what I told them.  I’ll buy the panic low after we touch the 1:1.618 price projection, then I’ll sell that rally.  Here are the charts that show the exact price points I’m expecting to see on the S&P 500 and the Dow. 

I beginning to think that we are going to start seeing the panic selling V-bottoms that marked the last third of the 2000-2003 bear market. 


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Moving Average Breadth

13 05 2008

One of the things I like most about Blocks is its quick and easy ability to create breadth indicators.  Here is one that looks to have some very interesting properties.  In the last issue of Stocks & Commodities Magazine there was an article about reliable moving average crosses.  The article investigated the cross of a couple of modified triple exponential moving averages.  (You can find for the charts on the shared Blocks feature by searching for TEMA)  The indicator shown above gives the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that have the moving averages in a bullish mode (median zl tema above the ha zl tema) or in a bearish mode (median zl tema below the ha zl tema).  It looks like buy or selling the extremes would be a pretty good bet.


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